The empire must be stopped by force

A victory plan for Ukraine and democracy.

Jan 26, 2025

(Picture: neweurope.org)

The biggest war in Europe since 1945 is about to enter its fourth year. During this year, the losses will exceed 1 million soldiers, excluding civilian casualties.
Still, the leaders of The West do not understand what’s at stake.

Most politicians still treat Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine as just one more in an endless row of crises. Gaza, Lebanon and domestic politics get the bulk of attention.

My own country Norway is a NATO member, but never condemn Russia's genocide and barely comments on the war crimes. We allow Russian intelligence to exploit maritime cooperation, to map our infrastructure, to sabotage military facilities, and we do little to stop civilian exports to Russia.

To Ukraine's freedom struggle, Norway's government gives a parsimonious 2% in support of its extraordinary profit (on top of the “normal” profit in 2024) in 2022-2023 of $143 billion. They could easily give the entire profit without affecting the Norwegians daily life at all, but Ukraine would have won the war.

In Europe Scholz rejects proposals in the German government to increase aid to Ukraine, on the grounds that the aid is "big enough". Ireland's president thinks increased NATO spending is “disgusting” although Russia started the war and is committing genocide.

With such priorities, Europe's political leadership demonstrates that they do not understand the gravity of the situation. This war is not a crisis, but an existential threat to Europe, the US and to democracy.

This chronicle argues why the Russian Empire must be stopped by force, why the survival of democracy requires a Ukrainian victory in the war, and a proposal for a victory plan.

Putin's goal

Russia started the war when they invaded Crimea in 2014, in direct violation of Budapest-memorandums, where they themselves are signatories. Some believe the main goal was to prevent Ukraine from becoming a NATO member. But in the Constitution of Ukraine, before the attack, there is neutrality written down.

Wars are not started to achieve goals already achieved.

Some believe that NATO is a threat and that Russia was "provoked" to attack its neighbour. This is false. NATO does indeed prevent Russia's imperial ambitions for control over countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union, and NATO thus gives its member states authority over their own foreign policy. But the claim that "NATO is a threat" is equivalent to NATO engaging in military provocation, which simply does not exist.

Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, NATO had zero combat troops in its eastern member states. On the Russian side of the border, however, there stood hundreds of thousands of soldiers. NATO established four combat brigades (approx. 15,000 soldiers) as late as 2017, in response to Russia's aggression. Everyone, including the Russians themselves, understands that NATO does not plan to attack the world's largest nuclear power with 15,000 troops.
The conclusion is that NATO is not a military threat, nor is it perceived as such by Russia. The narratives Russia uses to justify its war of aggression are false.

Putin has already told us his real war goals. In his article from 2021, and in his many speeches before the escalation in 2022, as well as in his gloomy speech on the 24th of February 2022, he shows his motivation very clearly: Ukraine does not exist. Ukrainians are actually Russians. Putin therefore wants to wipe out the Ukrainian nation-state. This is Putin's goal.

This is fascism.

(Source: Euromaidanpress)

Many experts believe extreme nationalism at the expense of individual rights and the militarization of society, are clear signs of fascism. Russia's child soldiers is one of many proofs of the direction in which Russia is moving.

Have our politicians told their populations that Putin is trying to wipe out Ukraine in its entirety?

Genocide

The goal of annihilating Ukraine is manifested through the actions of the Russian war machine. The brutality is absolutely insane. The Russians break all rules and conventions; rape, methodical and widespread torture, use of illigal gas, castration of living POWs, systematic murder on civilians and ruthless bombing of civil infrastructure, including hospitals.

These war crimes are well documented by OSCE, FN, and Amnesty.

The occupier is required to provide basic rights to civilians in occupied territories. In Eastern Ukraine, the conditions are terrible and the planned genocide is unfolding in practice. Russia is trying to wipe out Ukrainian culture and they are trying to steal Ukraine's future through systematic deportation of children (40 000 in 2024 alone) which is sent to “patriotic re-orientation” and forced adoption.

Imagine someone steals your child, and then brainwashes the child into hating you; this is pure evil.

Russia does this on an industrial scale, and the country's leader is therefore sought after for war crimes. These actions satisfy all criteria to be defined as a genocide.

Has anyone observed leading European politicians accuse Russia of genocide?

An existential threat

This war is not an existential threat to Russia. They can at any time; end the attack, withdraw to the internationally recognized borders, and this war will stop. But they don't, because Putin and the ultra-nationalists in the circle around him, want this war.

The West talks a lot about this, but there are no signs that Russia is interested in negotiations. Real negotiation means talking to the other party, without conditions. Russia does neither. The experts therefore agree that Putin still governs according to his maximalist war aims.

What happens if Russia wins?

A victorious Russia will be left with an important lesson: It is worthwhile attacking democracies militarily. The West's promise to support Ukraine will be exposed as a hoax, and the rules-based world order will fall. The signal to the other authoritarian regimes in the world is that international laws and regulations no longer apply. Taiwan's days as an independent state are probably over.

If Russia is left with this experience after the war is over, with a society in war mode, why should he stop building his empire? After all, building empire is what the Russians have been doing for 100 years.

They will force the conquered Ukrainian army into the Russian war machine (just like they’re doing in the occupied territories), and then attack Europe. The number 2 army in Europe, after the Ukrainian army, is 4 times smaller. How are we to stop this enlarged Russian army, now with vast experience and world leading drone capacity?

This threat is real.

(Illustration by Ricardo Tomás)

De-escalation leads to escalation

The leaders of The West, led by US President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz, have for the past three years pursued a strategy that goes by the name of "de-escalation".

The idea is that one should not provoke Russia because "provocations" lead to stronger and more dangerous actions, and one should try to limit the war geographically.

This strategy is a failure.

We see empirically that Russia has not shown restraint but instead escalated the war rapidly; bombing of civilian infrastructure, systematic executions of prisoners of war, nuclear threats and foreign soldiers from North Korea who are fighting on Russia's side.

The reason for this failure is that we in The West do not understand that the Russians are not like us. Norway's former defense chief Sverre Diesen tells of his meetings with the Russians that they always started by yelling at Diesen for various NATO activities and making demands. If Diesen responded with understanding and thus showed willingness to negotiate, the Russians became angry and increased their demands. If, on the other hand, Diesen answered dismissively, and shouted back a little, the Russians became satisfied and more compliant

When you and I, as westerners, negotiate and come to an agreement, we both feel that we achieve something. 1+1=3. For the Russians, willingness to negotiate means weakness, and with a zero-sum-game-attitude in their backbone, they push to get the most out of the situation. 0.3+0.7=2.

Russia only responds to power and strength.

Therefore, The West must now change its strategy and face Russia with strength. Only from a strong position can The West and Ukraine hope to force Russia to the negotiating table. They will only negotiate if they feel they are weak.

A plan for victory

Apart from Zelenskyj’s victory plan, no Western politicians have publicly formulated a plan for winning this war. With all due respect, here is a concrete proposal from an ‘average joe’, and I hope that someone with influence will address this before it is too late. The West must take much stricter measures immediately:

One voice
Western leaders must come together and deliver a united communication to Russia. Trump, Scholz, Tusk, Starmer, Kalla, Macron, Zelenskyj, all in the same room, at the same press conference. Naturally, Zelenskyj speaks (it is Ukraine Russia is at war with), with the other leaders standing behind him. The message from the leaders of the free world is the following:

"From now on, Putin must communicate directly to Zelenskyj, the other Western leaders will not speak directly to Putin regarding the war.
We believe that Russia has broken all international rules in its genocidal war against Ukraine. Now we make our stance. We believe that the whole of democracy is in danger, and that everything we fought for in WW2 is in danger of being lost.
We therefore consider Ukraine our red line, and we are willing to use any means to ensure that Ukraine defends its entire territory, including Crimea.
At the same time, we guarantee Russia's territorial integrity on its internationally recognized territory."
Show determination
At the same press conference, the following measures are announced:
1. all restrictions on Ukraine's use of weapons are removed
2. 300 billion USD in frozen Russian funds is given to Ukraine.
3. Ukrainian planes are equipped with weapons to take down the Russian planes that drop glide bombs from inside Russian territory.
4. A new press conference will be held in 3 days.
Declare Western war aims
At press conference 2, The West's and Ukraine's war goals are announced;
1. “Goal number 1 is to return all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, to Ukrainian control. Then internationally recognized borders will be restored.
2. Goal number 2 is the return of civilians and prisoners of war between both parties.
3. Goal number 3 is to hold Russian and Ukrainian leaders accountable for any war crimes. An international war tribunal for this process will be established.”
Demands and rewards
3 days later, press conference number 3 is held. Here, the creation of a protection zone in western Ukraine is announced. Countries in Eastern Europe will now start to shoot down Russian missiles and drones in this zone, on the grounds that Russia is systematically attacking civilian infrastructure, which is a war crime.

At the same time, Russia receives an ultimatum:

Option a)
Demands:

Ukraine becomes a NATO member.
Russia will withdraw to the internationally recognized borders from 1994, according to the Budapest memorandum they themselves have signed.
Russia (and Ukraine) accepts the return of civilians and prisoners of war.
Russia (and Ukraine) accept cooperation with the war crimes tribunal.

Rewards:
The West offers full normalization of economic and diplomatic relations
a guarantee that NATO will not deploy nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe
a non-attack pact between Russia and NATO

Option b)
Demands:
Ukraine becomes a NATO member.
Russia will withdraw to the internationally recognized borders from 1994, but not from Crimea. Crimea's status will be resolved diplomatically later.
Russia (and Ukraine) accepts the return of civilians and prisoners of war.

Rewards:
The full sanctions package is maintained.
a guarantee that NATO will not deploy nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe
a non-attack pact between Russia and NATO

5. Escalation plan to enforce cooperation

Acceptance of the offers is expected from Russia within 1 week.
Lack of response triggers the following escalation measures from The West:

After 1 week: 100% boycott of all Russian goods, finances and personnel.
After 2 weeks: Expropriation of all Russian assets and property in The West.
After 3 weeks: expulsion of all Russian diplomats in The West
After 4 weeks: Establishment of no-fly zone throughout Ukraine, enforced by a “coalition of the willing”.
After 5 weeks: Russia is expelled from the UN Security Council, options a and b are withdrawn, and Ukraine with partners uses military means to expel Russia from all Ukrainian territory.

This plan communicates clarity and strength. The Russians will not like this, but they will clearly see the alternatives; be crushed militarily, or achieve normalization.

Some will object that the Russians will never agree to this. That is correct, but we will force them. They have lost our will to negotiate.

Closure

Ultimately, this war is about not throwing away democracy's victory over Nazism in the Second World War, where we fought for our values and our freedom. The war is an existential threat to Europe, the United States and the free democratic world.

The Russian leadership - also post Putin - must learn once and for all, that the age of empire is past. Therefore, Russia must lose the war and be forced out of Ukrainian territory. This is the only way to lasting peace in Europe.

If we don't draw the line with the Russo-Ukrainian war, where the distinction between good and evil has never been more unmistakable, then there is no line at all. Then democracy is defeated.

Benjamin Husstad-Nedberg

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