Trump's War On Iran
Some thoughts five days in, from a pro-Ukrainian perspective.
#BullshitRubio is talking out of his ass when he tries to explain that the US is not starting a war but defending itself. This false representation unfortunately bears too much resemblance to Russia’s propaganda narratives for the attack on Ukraine.
But let’s start from the beginning.
The Iranian regime is a brutal dictatorship that for decades has brought suffering and misfortune to its own people and to many nations around the world. Today it stands shoulder to shoulder with Russia, serving as a key supporter of Putin’s genocidal war against Ukraine. Already at the start of the war, Iran sent thousands of Shahed drones to Russia and shared advanced technology that forms the basis for Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilians. For that reason, it is positive that this regime is now being significantly weakened — both because it offers hope of freedom for the Iranian people and because it strategically harms Russia. A weakened, or possibly even toppled, regime in Tehran would reduce Russia’s regional influence and deliver a major strategic blow to the Kremlin.
In the short term, higher oil prices will increase Russia’s revenues, but losing yet another ally within a year erodes its influence in the Middle East. Unfortunately, it remains doubtful that this will lead to meaningful change for the Iranian people. Experts largely agree that regime change in Iran is nearly impossible without boots on the ground, as the military controls much of the country’s economy and thus has powerful incentives to suppress any uprising. Yet there is real potential among the Iranian population. The people are young, secular, and well-educated — the most capable in the Middle East. Freed from its current ties to Moscow, Iran could one day become a natural partner for democratic nations in Europe.
At the same time, two things can be true. I want the Iranian regime to fall, but I distance myself from Donald Trump’s methods, timing, and motivations for this war. His approach — launching massive bombing campaigns without clear objectives or a plan for follow-up — is reckless. Even worse, Trump publicly encouraged Iranians to take to the streets by promising support, then failed to deliver. The result has been catastrophic, as the regime brutally crushed the protests and killed tens of thousands of civilians.
The timing is also unfortunate. Trump is diverting attention, resources, and political focus away from Ukraine — by far the most important conflict from a European perspective. Moreover, he acts like an emperor: he has not consulted his own people, not sought congressional approval, nor spoken to any of America’s allies in Europe or NATO. This demonstrates how little Trump views NATO as a real alliance. Europe must get used to the idea that the United States is no longer on its side.
It’s also telling that, although Russia formally condemned the attacks on Iran, it has done nothing to actually help Tehran. The Kremlin appears as a completely unreliable ally — and the fact that Putin has not uttered a single word of criticism toward Trump speaks volumes about how closely aligned the two truly are.
By contrast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has handled this situation wisely. Many Middle Eastern countries now suffering drone strikes against their own infrastructure are experiencing firsthand what Ukraine has endured for years. At the same time, Ukraine has signaled that it can help these countries with drone technology and tactical expertise — a clever strategy that builds industrial partnerships while strengthening Ukraine’s diplomatic position globally.
In summary: I hope the Iranian regime falls and that the Iranian people finally regain their country. They have suffered immensely for half a century and deserve far better. And I hope Russia’s downward spiral continues — with allies falling away, military setbacks mounting, and an economy in freefall.